ACEFA Winter Situational Assessment Program 2024
The clinical burden from acute viral respiratory infections during winter months will often be the result of multiple concurrent epidemics. In 2022–2023, many countries experienced large overlapping epidemics of influenza, RSV and COVID-19, exerting unusual pressure on ICU capacity. Short-term forecasting of epidemic activity can help to enable rapid understanding of the status of concurrent epidemics and preparation for any increased impact on healthcare services.
The project has the following aims:
To develop enhanced methods for epidemic situational assessment of viral respiratory pathogens.
To generate real-time epidemic analysis, including forecasts, of COVID-19, influenza, and RSV during winter to support public health risk assessment and response.
To assess forecast utility and public health value through both statistical performance evaluation and engagement with public health partners.