Annual Winter Situational Assessment Program
The clinical burden from acute viral respiratory infections during winter months will often be the result of multiple concurrent epidemics. In winter, many countries experienced large overlapping epidemics of influenza, RSV and COVID-19, exerting unusual pressure on ICU capacity. Short-term forecasting of epidemic activity can help to enable rapid understanding of the status of concurrent epidemics and preparation for any increased impact on healthcare services.
The project has the following aims:
To develop enhanced methods for epidemic situational assessment of viral respiratory pathogens.
To generate real-time epidemic analysis, including forecasts, of COVID-19, influenza, and RSV during winter to support public health risk assessment and response.
To assess forecast utility and public health value through both statistical performance evaluation and engagement with public health partners.
Dr Alec Henderson presenting at the Communicable Diseases and Immunisation Conference in 2025
Scenario Hub modelling for 2025-26
Decision-makers should have access to the highest quality decision support for infectious disease threats. In 2024, ACEFA established the Australia–Aotearoa Forecasting and Scenario Modelling Hubs to support the delivery of coordinated and timely epidemic analyses to public health decision-makers.
Nested within ACEFA’s Winter Situational Assessment Program, the Forecasting Hub provides real-time forecasts of disease burden to support situational awareness and response decisions over short-term horizons.
The Scenario Modelling Hub produces multi-model projections of disease burden under alternate intervention scenarios to support medium- to long-term disease management strategies, including immunisation programs.
| Alexandra Hogan Co-lead University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW alexandra.hogan@unsw.edu.au |
Tiffany Leung and Isaac Stopard Researchers University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW |
Eliran Boksenbojm Researcher University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC |
