Annual Winter Situational Assessment Program
The clinical burden from acute viral respiratory infections during winter months will often be the result of multiple concurrent epidemics. In temperate regions, many countries experienced overlapping epidemics of influenza, RSV and COVID-19, exerting unusual pressure on ICU capacity during winter months. Short-term forecasting of epidemic activity can help to enable rapid understanding of the status of concurrent epidemics and preparation for any increased impact on healthcare services.
The project has the following aims:
To generate real-time epidemic analysis, including forecasts, of COVID-19, influenza, and RSV during winter to support public health risk assessment and response.
To develop enhanced methods for epidemic situational assessment of viral respiratory pathogens.
To assess forecast utility and public health value through both statistical performance evaluation and engagement with public health partners.
Cover page of weekly reports provided to public health partners in Australia and New Zealand during winter months.
| Dr Oliver Eales Analyst and Reporting Lead University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC oliver.eales@unimelb.edu.au |
Dr Alec Henderson Forecaster University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD |
Dr Rob Moss Forecaster University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC |
| Dr Adeshina Adekunle Forecaster Department of Defence |
Prof Michael Plank Forecaster University of Canterbury, New Zealand |
Mitchell O’Hara-Wild Forecaster and Forecast Evaluation Lead Monash University, Melbourne, VIC |
| Dr Kate Senior Hub Data Lead University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC |
Ruarai Tobin Hub Software Lead University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC |
Alys Young Hub Research Assistant University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC |
